Will the RAPID team find more large amplitude overturning excursions?
|Reconstructed (blue) and predicted (red) AMOC time series.|
- The RAPID observations collected this autumn will show a mean overturning which is similar to that of the previous 5 years, with a value of ~ 16 Sv.
- The observations will not show a significant anomaly such as was seen in early 2010, and indeed the maximum AMOC of the collected data will occur during November-December 2014, although we also predict a late maximum in September 2015 as well.
- Despite the mean AMOC being of a similar level to recent years there will be short-lived excursions, both positive and negative, leading to maxima and minima approaching those of the previous decade’s observations. We have already given our predicted timing of the greatest positive excursion around the end of 2014 and the smallest value is expected be in mid-summer 2015. Our model suggests the latter to be ~ 80% of the mean AMOC.