What will the RAPID team find when they recover their ocean moorings this autumn?
Since 2004 oceanographers from the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton and their US colleagues have been using data from ocean moorings on the eastern and western sides of the Atlantic Ocean at 26oN to monitor the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This has resulted in a remarkable and unprecedented 10-year time-series of this key climate index (black line in the figure).
- The observations will show a mean AMOC over this period which has been roughly equal to that over the previous few years (a small increase of 0.3 ± 0.2 Sv over the 2009-2014 mean).
- The RAPID data recovered in the autumn this year won't reveal any evidence of a large "dip" over the 2014-2015 winter; in contrast we expect to find that the AMOC reached a maximum in November-January.
How the predictions were made